Around 350 days after its cycle peak, Bitcoin is trading approximately 30% below its high. During the previous three bear markets, losses at the same stage were roughly twice as deep as the current decline.
Following the 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks, Bitcoin reached its bear market lows approximately 365 to 415 days after the respective cycle tops. Glassnode said the current price action is diverging from previous cycles, with Bitcoin’s relatively limited decline and recovery suggesting that the traditional four-year cycle pattern may be changing.
However, the analysis does not indicate that Bitcoin can no longer decline or that the bear market has definitively ended. Instead, Glassnode’s assessment suggests that if the current recovery continues, the probability of Bitcoin eventually experiencing a decline as deep as those seen in previous cycles could decrease over time.
