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Around 350 days after its cycle peak, Bitcoin is trading approximately 30% below its high. During the previous three bear markets, losses at the same stage were roughly twice as deep as the current decline.

Following the 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks, Bitcoin reached its bear market lows approximately 365 to 415 days after the respective cycle tops. Glassnode said the current price action is diverging from previous cycles, with Bitcoin’s relatively limited decline and recovery suggesting that the traditional four-year cycle pattern may be changing.

However, the analysis does not indicate that Bitcoin can no longer decline or that the bear market has definitively ended. Instead, Glassnode’s assessment suggests that if the current recovery continues, the probability of Bitcoin eventually experiencing a decline as deep as those seen in previous cycles could decrease over time.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Pattern May Be Changing

Glassnode noted that Bitcoin has experienced a more limited decline in the current market cycle compared with previous periods, suggesting that the likelihood of a drop as deep as those seen in past cycles is gradually decreasing.

Bitexen Global Prod

The Bitcoin options on Deribit will expire on Friday, September 25, at 08:00 UTC. The contracts represent roughly 37% of the total open Bitcoin options positions on the platform. Around $2.1 billion worth of Ethereum options are also scheduled to expire at the same time.

The put/call ratio for September Bitcoin options stands at 0.69, indicating that bullish positions remain dominant. Around 55% of the approximately $9.4 billion in call options currently have intrinsic value based on Bitcoin’s market price.

According to Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers, spot Bitcoin purchases by market makers seeking to hedge their options exposure may have supported prices during the recent rally. As these hedging requirements decline following the expiry, short-term volatility could increase. Open interest is particularly concentrated at the $70,000 strike, with significant call positions also at $85,000, $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000.

Bitcoin Faces Critical $16 Billion Options Expiry

Bitcoin could see increased short-term volatility as approximately $15.9 billion worth of options are set to expire on Friday.


According to Chainalysis’ 2026 Geographies report, global crypto activity totaled approximately $9.4 trillion during the 12-month period ending June 30, 2026. This represented a decline of just 1.6% from around $9.5 trillion in the previous period, while the total crypto market capitalization fell by $2.1 trillion, or 50%.

Despite the sharp decline in market value, some areas of crypto usage expanded significantly. Domestic P2P transfers between individuals increased by 302.9% to $228.7 billion, while cross-border stablecoin flows rose by 77.5% to $220.3 billion.

The average size of cross-border transactions was approximately $3,000, which Chainalysis said was consistent with everyday financial needs such as supplier payments, remittances and moving savings into another currency. Meanwhile, global on-chain balances declined from $860 billion in September 2025 to $440 billion in June 2026, while stablecoin balances remained relatively stable between $98 billion and $109 billion.

Stablecoin and P2P Usage Grew as the Crypto Market Lost Half Its Value

Chainalysis data showed that while the total crypto market value declined by 50%, on-chain economic activity remained relatively resilient, with P2P transfers and cross-border stablecoin flows recording strong growth.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $714.7 million in net inflows on September 22, while spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $162.2 million.

Bitcoin held near $87,000 as Zcash gained about 10% and XRP rose 6%. Falling oil prices supported risk appetite, while traders weighed Washington developments, including a bill advancing to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

White House and Treasury officials said U.S. crypto market-structure work cannot wait for the stalled Clarity Act, pointing to SEC and CFTC rulemaking as the near-term path. 

Bitcoin is trading at $86,430, while Ethereum is trading at $2,756.

The Fear and Greed Index stands at 71, indicating Greed.

Daily Morning Bulletin - 23.09.2026

Click to read our Morning Bulletin, which summarizes the latest situation of the markets at the start of the day and includes all the developments that will take place during the day!

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $999 million in net inflows on September 21, while spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $270 million.

Bitcoin climbed above $85,000 as more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, including $844 million in bearish positions. 

Strategy acquired 950 BTC for approximately $75.7 million, increasing its total holdings to 846,000 BTC.

Bitmine purchased another 27,562 ETH, bringing its holdings to 5.98 million ETH, equivalent to approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. 

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $86,033, while Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,744.

The Fear and Greed Index stands at 78, indicating Extreme Greed.

Daily Morning Bulletin - 22.09.2026

Crypto asset manager Grayscale highlighted that elevated equity valuations could encourage investors to explore alternative asset classes. According to the firm, increasing concentration in certain traditional assets may strengthen the need for greater portfolio diversification.

In the crypto market, Grayscale pointed to a significant decline in leverage following an extended period of weakness. The firm believes that the reset in investor positioning and removal of excessive leverage could contribute to a healthier market structure for digital assets.

Rather than viewing crypto as a complete replacement for traditional investments, Grayscale sees digital assets as a potential complementary component of diversified portfolios. With different risk and return characteristics, crypto assets could attract greater attention from investors seeking diversification in the period ahead.

Grayscale Sees Positive Outlook for Crypto as Diversification Demand Grows

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Grayscale believes high valuations in traditional markets and reduced leverage across crypto could encourage investors to increasingly consider digital assets for portfolio diversification.


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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $101.1 million in net inflows on September 2, while spot Ethereum ETFs posted $48.2 million in net outflows. 

Bitcoin rebounded above $77,500 despite elevated oil prices and Treasury yields, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September declined to approximately 62%.

The CFTC asked a federal court to dismiss CME Group’s lawsuit challenging the regulatory approval of cryptocurrency perpetual futures.

Australia’s financial regulator gave digital asset companies until September 30 to apply for the required financial services licences, warning that non-compliant firms could face civil and criminal penalties.

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,576, while Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,393.

The Fear and Greed Index stands at 65, indicating Greed.

Daily Morning Bulletin - 03.09.2026

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SGP-0002, a proposal directly affecting Solana’s token economics, passed with 67.001% support from validators. Rather than reducing the existing SOL supply, the change aims to accelerate the decline in the amount of new tokens entering circulation. Under the new model, the annual issuance reduction rate will increase from 15% to 30%.

The revised model is estimated to result in approximately 18.9 million fewer SOL being issued over the next six years. As a result, Solana’s supply growth is expected to slow considerably faster compared with the current issuance schedule.

The change will also affect staking returns. Staking rewards, currently at around 5.25%, are projected to decline to approximately 2.25% by the third year. A total of 1,326 validators participated in the vote, with the 60.7% participation rate marking the highest governance turnout recorded on Solana to date.


Solana Approves Major Change to Slow SOL Supply Growth

The Solana community has approved the SGP-0002 proposal, which is designed to slow new SOL issuance at a faster pace while significantly reducing staking rewards over the coming years.


U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $236.5 million in net outflows on September 1, while spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $8.6 million in net inflows.

Renewed U.S.–Iran strikes pushed WTI crude above $90 and intensified the global bond sell-off, increasing inflation concerns and weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Markets raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to nearly 70%.

The SEC proposed modernizing its transfer-agent rules to reflect the use of blockchain technology in securities offerings, ownership records, and share transfers.

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,470, while Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,419.

The Fear and Greed Index stands at 63, indicating Greed.

Daily Morning Bulletin - 02.09.2026

XRP climbed from approximately $0.99 to $1.38 between August 17 and August 31, while its futures market moved in the opposite direction. Total XRP futures open interest fell by around 16%, declining from 2.77 billion XRP to 2.34 billion XRP during the period.

Despite the broader decline, XRP open interest on CME, a regulated market widely used by professional and institutional investors, increased from 284 million XRP to 387 million XRP. The roughly 36% increase lifted CME’s share of total XRP futures open interest from 10% to 17%, while positions outside CME declined by approximately 21%.

CFTC data also showed a divergence among investor groups. Leveraged funds held a net short position of approximately 116 million XRP, while dealers added around 60 million XRP in net long exposure and asset managers added another 28 million XRP. The figures suggest that while overall leveraged activity declined during XRP’s rally, institutional positioning on regulated markets strengthened.


Institutional Presence in XRP Futures Grows as Price Rallies

XRP gained nearly 40% in two weeks while overall futures open interest declined, but rising positions on CME pointed to a growing institutional presence in the market.


Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw **$216.7 million** in net inflows on **2026-08-31**. BlackRock led with **$205.9 million**, while Fidelity added **$6.9 million**, Bitwise **$4.3 million**, Morgan Stanley **$3.6 million**, and Grayscale BTC **$9.4 million**. VanEck had a **$13.4 million outflow**.

Spot Ethereum ETFs saw **$87.6 million** in net inflows on **2026-08-31**. BlackRock contributed **$59.9 million**, Fidelity **$9.3 million**, Bitwise **$3.7 million**, 21Shares **$1.2 million**, and Grayscale Crypto **$13.5 million**.

Singapore proposed new stablecoin rules requiring **100% reserves** and a **ban on stablecoin yield products**, a move that could tighten issuance standards and accelerate regulatory competition around tokenized liquidity.

The London Stock Exchange announced a framework with Payward to onboard major UK stocks onchain, signaling continued movement from exchange experiments toward real-world tokenization infrastructure.

Global risk desks still show rate-sensitive behavior: despite strong ETF demand and a stable Bitcoin structure, broader market tone remains shaped by continued bond-market pressure and cautious positioning around Federal Reserve outlook.

Bitcoin is trading at **$78,042.42**, while Ethereum is at **$2,456.30**.

The Fear & Greed Index is **69 (Greed)**.

Daily Morning Bulletin - 01.08.2026


BitMine, the world’s largest corporate Ethereum treasury holder, continued its regular accumulation strategy this week. The company purchased another 53,501 ETH over the past week, pushing its total Ethereum holdings above 5.9 million ETH. Its reserves now represent approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply.

The company also continues to use a large portion of its Ethereum holdings for staking. BitMine currently has 5,067,309 ETH staked, representing approximately 86% of its total reserves. If current conditions continue, the company estimates that its staking operations could generate approximately $335 million in annualized revenue.

BitMine also holds $541 million in cash and securities, while the combined value of its crypto assets, cash, securities and other investments stood at $15.6 billion as of August 30. With its latest weekly purchase, BitMine has moved even closer to holding 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.


BitMine Buys Ethereum Again This Week as Holdings Top 5.9 Million ETH

BitMine continued its Ethereum purchases this week, adding another 53,501 ETH and increasing its total holdings to 5,901,112 ETH.
