While Bitcoin is recognized as one of the most volatile assets in the financial world, September in particular has historically been challenging for investors. However, in September 2024, this trend changed and Bitcoin performed positively contrary to expectations. So, how have Septembers gone in the past and what has changed this year?
Past Performance: September Usually Closes in the Red
When we look at Bitcoin's historical data, we see that September usually closes on a down note. In the 11 years since 2013, Bitcoin has only closed September in the green 3 times. The biggest decline was 19.01% in 2014. The average performance of September months indicates a decline of about 4.78%.
Bitcoin's September performance by year:
2023: +3,91% 2022: -3,12% 2021: -7,03% 2020: -7,51% 2019: -13,38% 2018: -5,58% 2017: -7,44% 2016: +6,04% 2015: +2,35% 2014: -19,01% 2013: -1,76% This data shows that September is usually a challenging month for Bitcoin and investors should be cautious during this period.
Expectations and Talks
As we entered September, there were many uncertainties and concerns in the market. The Mt. Gox distributions, possible regulations on cryptocurrencies by the German and American governments, the US elections and geopolitical tensions were reducing investors' risk appetite. The historically poor performance of September also added to these concerns.
Analysts and investors warned that Bitcoin could fall again in September. However, these expectations changed with an important development during the month.
Fed Cut Interest Rates by 50 Basis Points
The most important event that set September apart this year was the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting on September 18. While the markets were expecting a 25 basis point cut at most, the Fed's aggressive 50 basis point cut came as a surprise.
This rate cut had a positive impact on all financial markets, not just cryptocurrency markets. Lower interest rates have made it easier for investors to move into riskier assets and Bitcoin has benefited from this positive sentiment.
The Fed won't meet in October and it remains to be seen how interest rate policies will shape up for the rest of the year. However, this aggressive rate cut had a positive impact on market expectations.
Conclusion in 2024
Bitcoin closed September with a positive performance contrary to expectations. Bitcoin, which was traded at $58,500 at the beginning of the month, rose to $63,700 at the end of the month. This indicates an increase of approximately 8.88%.
This rise, which came with the effect of the interest rate cut, caused Bitcoin to surpass its historical September performances. The easing of the ongoing tightening policies and the positive reaction of the markets to this development provided a relief to the cryptocurrency market in general.
The point is promising
Bitcoin's positive performance this year after a historically challenging September has been a promising development for investors. The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut had a more positive impact than the markets had expected, boosting interest in risky assets.
It is increasingly important for investors to keep a close eye on market volatility and macroeconomic developments. While September's positive performance sends positive signals about Bitcoin's future potential, due to the nature of the markets, caution is always the best approach.
